Trading Expectancy and Risk to Reward Ratio Trading System analysis
Saturday, October 30th, 2010This is tutorial regarding the analysis to a trading system and its relation to expectancy as well as the risk to reward ratio. This tutorial consists of the important financial equations that the trader needs to know. This is equation 1 which the standard formula for computing trading expectancy:
Expectancy = (%win * average win) – (%loss * average loss) (equation 1)
Supposing:
Risk/Reward ratio is 1/3 then Average loss/Average win is 1/3. Risk to reward ratio varies from one trader to another. Some will target 1/2 or 1/5. 1/3 is a common standard.
Then equation 2 is:
average win = 3* average loss (equation2)
Supposing the trader is targeting $100 net profit per trade. So this equates expectancy to $100
Also:
%win + %loss = 1
Then equation 3 is:
%win = 1- %loss (equation3) (more…)
