Prediction of US Dollar vs. Philippine Peso in 2011, 2012 and 2013
Saturday, April 2nd, 2011Predicting the exchange rate of US Dollar and Philippine peso is important for those people that are living in the Philippines that are depending on the US dollar. Common examples are the expats or families with members working abroad and sending them US dollar on a monthly basis.
The higher the exchange rate, the better because it translates to more buying opportunities of a single dollar in the Philippines. One biggest question is: “Will the exchange rate go up or go down in 2011 to 2013?” Some speculations that include some forecast from HSBC Banking predict the exchange rate will go down to as low as 37.5 this year to 35.50 pesos in 2012.
This is indeed very alarming as a lot of Filipinos and expats are depending on the US Dollar value. So as technical analyst myself, I confirm these findings if these are indeed true. Using real-world data, my findings are actually opposite! The exchange will rate will actually go up to as high as 53 pesos per dollar in 2012/2013. Here is how I analyzed this situation. The US Dollar value depends on the US Economy. The most accurate measurement of the US economy is actually the performance of the S&P500 index. These are the top 500 companies in the US that plays a major role in the economy.
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